October

Welcome to October!! For the first time since February of this year, there is some action and excitement in the crypto market. About time!!

Bitcoin is starting the month at $84,000 and breaking the downward trend. Only 33% below last October’s all-time high around $126,000.

Ethereum is sitting around $2,700, knocking on the door of breaking the downward trend we have been in since February. Ethereum is what really turns the altcoin market around.

For Q3, Bitcoin is up more than 40%, Ethereum is up roughly 70%, and September finished as one of Bitcoin’s strongest Septembers on record. That’s a pretty big change from the “crypto is dead again” conversations I was hearing all summer. We’re still not out of the woods, but some optimism is definitely popping up.

So naturally, everyone is now asking the same question:

Could this be Uptober?

Could be, but I’m more interested in some sustainable price action and seeing all coins above their February levels. Of course, crypto has a funny way of reminding us that history sometimes does not matter. Last October actually finished down, despite Bitcoin touching roughly $126,000 during the month.

The market right now

The biggest change over the last few months has been the amount of money coming back into the market.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs brought in about $2.4 billion in the week ending September 25, their strongest weekly inflow since October 2025. Ethereum ETFs also had a strong week, bringing in roughly $690 million, while Solana ETFs had their strongest day since launch.

That matters.

The ETF flows have become one of the better ways to see whether serious money is actually showing up since they launched.

Bitcoin has also held up surprisingly well considering the Fed raised rates in September. Yesterday, the September inflation data came in a little cooler than expected, which pushed market expectations for another October hike lower.

I like that combination for upside in the risk markets.

Market sentiment

The mood is better than it was a few months ago. I’d call it cautiously optimistic. Not greedy yet, but getting there. Greed is when we see 20–30% gains each day for altcoins.

Bitcoin

A few months ago we were down near $58,000–$60,000.

October is where the “Uptober” nickname comes from. From 2013 through 2025 it averaged about a 20% gain, and it finished higher in 10 of those 13 years.

A simple 20% gain from $84,000 is about $101,000. That is an average, not a forecast.

The next level I’m watching is the $87,000–$88,000 area.

Above that, I’d be watching $90,000, followed by the psychological $100,000 level.

After that, it will be an easy move back to the $126K all-time high.

Ethereum

This is where it gets interesting.

That roughly 70% quarter is a much different story than the first half of the year. Ethereum still has a lot of work to do before a new all-time high.

The first area I’m watching is $2,800.

Above that, I’d be watching $3,000 and then the larger psychological levels above, leading to a new all-time high.

The important thing for me isn’t simply whether ETH hits $3,000.

It’s when Ethereum starts outperforming Bitcoin.

When Bitcoin runs first, capital tends to stay concentrated there.

When Ethereum starts taking over leadership, that’s usually when the rest of the market starts leading in gains.

The rotation

This is probably the biggest thing I’m watching going into October.

A few big coins have moved back to the crash level from February. Most are sitting there, waiting for BTC and ETH to make a decision.

Solana has been strong, Zcash has had an enormous run this year, ADA is gaining back to February levels, and some other areas have started waking up. Once the leaders pick a direction, the job is to see which names move first.

What I’m watching in October

1. Bitcoin and that $87K–$88K area. Can BTC break the September high and hold it?
2. ETF flows. Are institutional buyers still showing up? The September numbers have been encouraging. I want to see if that continues.
3. Ethereum. Can ETH get through $2,800 and start taking more dominance?
4. The Fed. The September rate hike is behind us. The next question is whether October brings another one. Softer inflation data reduced the market’s expectations for an October hike, but rates are still part of the story.
5. Market moves. I don’t just want to see Bitcoin go up. I want to see more of the market participate. That’s how you know the move is starting.

Bottom line

This is not the market we were sitting in this summer.

Could Uptober bring the next bull market? It’s due, and I’m ready for things to get going.

The recovery still has to prove itself. Bitcoin keeps trending. Ethereum keeps improving. ETF money keeps coming in. The rest of the market has to be ready to participate.

If those line up, October gets interesting.